论文标题

气候时间序列变更点技术中的良好实践和常见的陷阱技术:评论

Good Practices and Common Pitfalls in Climate Time Series Changepoint Techniques: A Review

论文作者

Lund, Robert B., Beaulieu, Claudie, Killick, Rebecca, Lu, Qiqi, Shi, Xueheng

论文摘要

当今的气候变化点(均质化)方法比比皆是,气候和统计文献中都存在无数的技术。不幸的是,许多人尚不清楚适当的更改点技术。更复杂的问题,更改点结论在假设中对小扰动并不强大。例如,允许在系列中建立趋势或相关性可以大大改变结论。本文是对变更点主题的评论,重点是阐明允许科学家得出可靠结论的模型和技术。避免的陷阱是通过实际应用来证明的。话语始于叙述大多数气候时间序列的显着统计特征。此后,考虑了单个和多个更改点问题。在途中讨论了几个陷阱,建议进行良好的做法。尽管我们的大多数应用程序都涉及温度序列,但提到了其他设置。

Climate changepoint (homogenization) methods abound today, with a myriad of techniques existing in both the climate and statistics literature. Unfortunately, the appropriate changepoint technique to use remains unclear to many. Further complicating issues, changepoint conclusions are not robust to small perturbations in assumptions; for example, allowing for a trend or correlation in the series can drastically change conclusions. This paper is a review of the changepoint topic, with an emphasis on illuminating the models and techniques that allow the scientist to make reliable conclusions. Pitfalls to avoid are demonstrated via actual applications. The discourse begins by narrating the salient statistical features of most climate time series. Thereafter, single and multiple changepoint problems are considered. Several pitfalls are discussed en route and good practices are recommended. While the majority of our applications involve temperature series, other settings are mentioned.

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