论文标题
太阳周期基于物理学的预测模型的比较25
Comparison of physics-based prediction models of solar cycle 25
论文作者
论文摘要
基于物理的太阳周期预测提供了一种有效的方法来验证我们对太阳周期的理解。在周期25开始之前，开发了几个基于物理的太阳周期预测。这些预测使用通量传输发电机（FTD）模型，表面通量传输（SFT）模型或两种模型的组合。这些预测背后的常见物理是循环周围最小的表面多形场占主导地位。在评论中，我们首先对SFT和FTD模型进行了简短的介绍。然后，我们比较了来自四个方面的7个基于物理的预测模型，这是预测变量，如何获得预测变量，如何使用预测变量以及预测什么。最后，我们通过两个SFT数值测试证明了同化磁图对预测的巨大影响。我们建议，由于它们对结果的影响很大，因此在此类基于物理学的预测中都应包括最初磁图和黑子出现的不确定性。此外，在审查中，我们强调我们可以从不同的预测中学到的东西，而不是对预测结果的评估。
Physics-based solar cycle predictions provide an effective way to verify our understanding of the solar cycle. Before the start of cycle 25, several physics-based solar cycle predictions were developed. These predictions use flux transport dynamo (FTD) models, surface flux transport (SFT) models, or a combination of the two kinds of models. The common physics behind these predictions is that the surface poloidal fields around cycle minimum dominate the subsequent cycle strength. In the review, we first give short introductions to SFT and FTD models. Then we compare 7 physics-based prediction models from 4 aspects, which are what the predictor is, how to get the predictor, how to use the predictor, and what to predict. Finally, we demonstrate the large effect of assimilated magnetograms on predictions by two SFT numerical tests. We suggest that uncertainties in both initial magnetograms and sunspot emergence should be included in such physics-based predictions because of their large effects on the results. In addition, in the review we put emphasis on what we can learn from different predictions, rather than an assessment of prediction results.
