论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

Estimation and inference for transfer learning with high-dimensional quantile regression

论文作者

Huang, Jiayu, Wang, Mingqiu, Wu, Yuanshan

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

Transfer learning has become an essential technique to exploit information from the source domain to boost performance of the target task. Despite the prevalence in high-dimensional data, heterogeneity and heavy tails are insufficiently accounted for by current transfer learning approaches and thus may undermine the resulting performance. We propose a transfer learning procedure in the framework of high-dimensional quantile regression models to accommodate heterogeneity and heavy tails in the source and target domains. We establish error bounds of transfer learning estimator based on delicately selected transferable source domains, showing that lower error bounds can be achieved for critical selection criterion and larger sample size of source tasks. We further propose valid confidence interval and hypothesis test procedures for individual component of high-dimensional quantile regression coefficients by advocating a double transfer learning estimator, which is one-step debiased estimator for the transfer learning estimator wherein the technique of transfer learning is designed again. By adopting data-splitting technique, we advocate a transferability detection approach that guarantees to circumvent negative transfer and identify transferable sources with high probability. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method exhibits some favorable and compelling performances and the practical utility is further illustrated by analyzing a real example.

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