论文标题
通过预测在线搜索:帕累托最佳算法及其在能源市场中的应用
Online Search with Predictions: Pareto-optimal Algorithm and its Applications in Energy Markets
论文作者
论文摘要
本文开发了挥发性电力市场的能源交易的学习算法。基本问题是在不确定的时变价格上出售(或购买)$ k $的能源单位,以最高收入(最低的成本)出售,这可以作为竞争性分析文献中的经典在线搜索问题而定。最先进的算法在每个时间段做出交易决策时都不了解未来的市场价格,并旨在保证最差的价格序列的性能。但是,实际上,关于未来价格的预测通常可以通过利用机器学习来获得。本文旨在将机器学习的预测纳入为在线搜索问题设计竞争算法的预测。我们算法的重要特性是,当预测准确(即一致性)时,它们在事后与离线算法具有竞争力,并且在预测任意错误时提供了最坏的保证(即稳健性)。拟议的算法在一致性和鲁棒性之间实现了帕累托最佳的权衡,在这种算法中,没有其他用于在线搜索的算法可以提高给定鲁棒性的一致性。此外,我们将基本的在线搜索问题扩展到更一般的库存管理设置,该设置可以捕获电力市场中的存储辅助能源交易。在使用现实世界应用中的痕迹的经验评估中,我们的学习效果算法与基准算法相比提高了平均经验性能,同时还提供了改善的最差案例性能。
This paper develops learning-augmented algorithms for energy trading in volatile electricity markets. The basic problem is to sell (or buy) $k$ units of energy for the highest revenue (lowest cost) over uncertain time-varying prices, which can framed as a classic online search problem in the literature of competitive analysis. State-of-the-art algorithms assume no knowledge about future market prices when they make trading decisions in each time slot, and aim for guaranteeing the performance for the worst-case price sequence. In practice, however, predictions about future prices become commonly available by leveraging machine learning. This paper aims to incorporate machine-learned predictions to design competitive algorithms for online search problems. An important property of our algorithms is that they achieve performances competitive with the offline algorithm in hindsight when the predictions are accurate (i.e., consistency) and also provide worst-case guarantees when the predictions are arbitrarily wrong (i.e., robustness). The proposed algorithms achieve the Pareto-optimal trade-off between consistency and robustness, where no other algorithms for online search can improve on the consistency for a given robustness. Further, we extend the basic online search problem to a more general inventory management setting that can capture storage-assisted energy trading in electricity markets. In empirical evaluations using traces from real-world applications, our learning-augmented algorithms improve the average empirical performance compared to benchmark algorithms, while also providing improved worst-case performance.