论文标题

具有(明显)重叠违规的文本数据的因果估计

Causal Estimation for Text Data with (Apparent) Overlap Violations

论文作者

Gui, Lin, Veitch, Victor

论文摘要

考虑估计文本文档某些属性的因果效应的问题;例如:写有礼貌与粗鲁的电子邮件对响应时间有什么影响?为了估计观察数据的因果关系,我们需要调整影响治疗和结果的文本的混淆方面,例如文本的主题或写作水平。这些混杂的方面是未知的先验,因此对整个文本(例如,使用变压器)进行调整似乎很自然。但是,因果识别和估计程序依赖于重叠的假设:对于所有调整变量,都有随机性剩余,以便每个单位都可以接受(不)接受治疗。由于这里的治疗本身就是文本的属性,因此它是完美确定的,并且显然违反了重叠。本文的目的是展示如何处理因果鉴定并在存在明显重叠的情况下获得可靠的因果估计。简而言之,这个想法是使用监督的表示学习来产生一个数据表示,以保留混淆信息,同时消除仅预测治疗的信息。然后,这种表示足以进行调整并可以满足重叠。根据非参数估计的适应结果,我们发现此过程可误解有条件的结果,从而产生了一个低偏置估计器,在弱条件下具有有效的不确定性定量。经验结果表明,相对于自然基线,偏差和不确定性定量的改善。

Consider the problem of estimating the causal effect of some attribute of a text document; for example: what effect does writing a polite vs. rude email have on response time? To estimate a causal effect from observational data, we need to adjust for confounding aspects of the text that affect both the treatment and outcome -- e.g., the topic or writing level of the text. These confounding aspects are unknown a priori, so it seems natural to adjust for the entirety of the text (e.g., using a transformer). However, causal identification and estimation procedures rely on the assumption of overlap: for all levels of the adjustment variables, there is randomness leftover so that every unit could have (not) received treatment. Since the treatment here is itself an attribute of the text, it is perfectly determined, and overlap is apparently violated. The purpose of this paper is to show how to handle causal identification and obtain robust causal estimation in the presence of apparent overlap violations. In brief, the idea is to use supervised representation learning to produce a data representation that preserves confounding information while eliminating information that is only predictive of the treatment. This representation then suffices for adjustment and can satisfy overlap. Adapting results on non-parametric estimation, we find that this procedure is robust to conditional outcome misestimation, yielding a low-bias estimator with valid uncertainty quantification under weak conditions. Empirical results show strong improvements in bias and uncertainty quantification relative to the natural baseline.

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