论文标题
估计西雅图 - 塔科马国际机场可变消息标牌的驾驶员响应率
Estimating Driver Response Rates to Variable Message Signage at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport
论文作者
论文摘要
我们应用贝叶斯线性回归，以估算西雅图 - 塔科马国际机场（SEATAC）在可变消息标志的驱动程序的响应率。我们的方法使用在机场航站楼的到达和出发通道入口处测量的车辆速度和流量数据，并签署消息数据。根据一天中的不同，我们估计，当标志读取出发时，驾驶员中有5.5％至9.1％的驾驶员从出发转移到到达中，使用到达，相反，驾驶员的1.9％至4.2％的驾驶员从到达转移到出发。尽管我们缺乏反事实数据（即，如果转移治疗不活跃，将会发生的事情），但采用一种因果模型，该模型用先前的分布速率编码时间依赖性可以产生可衡量的效果。
We apply Bayesian Linear Regression to estimate the response rate of drivers to variable message signs at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, or SeaTac. Our approach uses vehicle speed and flow data measured at the entrances of the arrival and departure-ways of the airport terminal, and sign message data. Depending on the time of day, we estimate that between 5.5 and 9.1% of drivers divert from departures to arrivals when the sign reads departures full, use arrivals, and conversely, between 1.9 and 4.2% of drivers divert from arrivals to departures. Though we lack counterfactual data (i.e., what would have happened had the diversionary treatment not been active), adopting a causal model that encodes time dependency with prior distributions rate can yield a measurable effect.
