论文标题

通过全球灾难风险汇集来提高国家的财务复原力

Increasing countries financial resilience through global catastrophe risk pooling

论文作者

Ciullo, Alessio, Strobl, Eric, Meiler, Simona, Martius, Olivia, Bresch, David N.

论文摘要

极端天气事件可能会对国民经济产生严重影响,导致低至中等收入国家的复苏依靠外国经济援助。但是,外国援助是缓慢而不确定的。因此,《仙台框架》和《巴黎协定》倡导更有弹性的金融工具,例如主权灾难风险库。但是,现有的池可能无法完全利用财务弹性潜力,因为它们的设计不是为了使风险多样化的目标最大化,而仅在区域汇总风险。为了解决这个问题,我们介绍了一种构成池的方法,该方法构成了最大化风险多样化的方法,并选择了双边相关性低的国家 /地区风险较低的国家。我们应用方法来探讨全球合并对区域合并的好处。我们发现,全球合并会增加风险多样化,降低了国家风险的份额,并增加了从风险集合中获利的国家数量。

Extreme weather events can have severe impacts on national economies, leading the recovery of low- to middle-income countries to become reliant on foreign financial aid. Foreign aid, however, is slow and uncertain. Therefore, the Sendai Framework and the Paris Agreement advocate for more resilient financial instruments like sovereign catastrophe risk pools. Existing pools, however, might not fully exploit financial resilience potentials because they were not designed with the goal of maximizing risk diversification and they pool risk only regionally. To address this, we introduce a method that forms pools maximizing risk diversification and which selects countries with low bilateral correlations or low shares in the pool risk. We apply the method to explore the benefits of global pooling with respect to regional pooling. We find that global pooling increases risk diversification, it lowers countries shares in the pool risk and it increases the number of countries profiting from risk pooling.

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