论文标题
和平与系统战争之间的过渡，作为签名网络动态系统中的分叉
Transitions between peace and systemic war as bifurcations in a signed network dynamical system
论文作者
论文摘要
我们使用一种将复杂的系统理论与网络建模和分析相结合的方法来研究与系统冲突发作相关的结构特征和过程。我们在国际关系的背景下提出了一个签署的合作与冲突动态网络模型。该模型在结构平衡力和二元特异性力的影响下节点之间的关系发展。随着结构平衡压力的增加，和平与战争稳定的平衡存在，模型模拟表现出从和平到系统战争的急剧分叉，以及从战争到和平的滞后反向分叉。我们展示了我们为和平 - 战争分叉条件得出的分析表达如何意味着两极分化的网络结构增加了对系统战争的敏感性。我们开发了一个框架来识别最不稳定的关系扰动模式，并将其应用于第一次世界大战之前的欧洲大国网络。我们还表明，该模型显示出批判性的减慢，在这种情况下，对和平平衡的扰动需要更长的时间才能衰减，因为该系统将近距离接近分子。我们讨论了我们的结果与国际关系理论有关系统战争的原因和催化剂的关系。
We investigate structural features and processes associated with the onset of systemic conflict using an approach which integrates complex systems theory with network modeling and analysis. We present a signed network model of cooperation and conflict dynamics in the context of international relations between states. The model evolves ties between nodes under the influence of a structural balance force and a dyad-specific force. Model simulations exhibit a sharp bifurcation from peace to systemic war as structural balance pressures increase, a bistable regime in which both peace and war stable equilibria exist, and a hysteretic reverse bifurcation from war to peace. We show how the analytical expression we derive for the peace-to-war bifurcation condition implies that polarized network structure increases susceptibility to systemic war. We develop a framework for identifying patterns of relationship perturbations that are most destabilizing and apply it to the network of European great powers before World War I. We also show that the model exhibits critical slowing down, in which perturbations to the peace equilibrium take longer to decay as the system draws closer to the bifurcation. We discuss how our results relate to international relations theories on the causes and catalysts of systemic war.
