论文标题
学习清算外汇:通过自适应TOP-K回归的最佳停止
Learning to Liquidate Forex: Optimal Stopping via Adaptive Top-K Regression
论文作者
论文摘要
我们考虑学习代表一家以外币收入(FC)的企业收入的贸易代理商(FC)和本国货币支出(HC)的费用。代理商的目的是通过决定在交易剧集的每个时间步骤中保留或出售FC来最大化预期的HC。我们将其作为一个优化问题,并考虑从监督到模仿再到强化学习的学习组成部分的广泛方法。我们观察到,大多数方法都认为为简单的启发式基线而努力进行改进。我们确定了使标准解决方案无效的问题的两个关键方面 - i)虽然对未来FX率的良好预测在指导良好的决策方面可能非常有效,预测FX率很难,并且错误的估计倾向于降低贸易剂的性能,而不是降低其固有的fx Intifers a Renders的固有性质的固有性质,而不是改善了它的固有性质。为了解决这些问题,我们提出了一种新颖的监督学习方法,该方法学会预测Top-K未来的FX率,而不是预测所有未来的FX利率,并基于对预测的Hold-Sell-Sell决定(例如,例如,如果未来的FX费率高于目前的FX费率,则否则出售FX费率,否则)。此外,要处理FX费率数据中的非平稳性,这给I.I.D带来了挑战。在监督学习方法中的假设,我们建议根据最近的历史情节自适应地学习决策阈值。通过广泛的经验评估,我们表明我们的方法是唯一能够在简单的启发式基线上一致改进的方法。进一步的实验表明,最先进的统计和基于深度学习的预测方法的效率低下,因为它们会降低贸易代理的性能。
We consider learning a trading agent acting on behalf of the treasury of a firm earning revenue in a foreign currency (FC) and incurring expenses in the home currency (HC). The goal of the agent is to maximize the expected HC at the end of the trading episode by deciding to hold or sell the FC at each time step in the trading episode. We pose this as an optimization problem, and consider a broad spectrum of approaches with the learning component ranging from supervised to imitation to reinforcement learning. We observe that most of the approaches considered struggle to improve upon simple heuristic baselines. We identify two key aspects of the problem that render standard solutions ineffective - i) while good forecasts of future FX rates can be highly effective in guiding good decisions, forecasting FX rates is difficult, and erroneous estimates tend to degrade the performance of trading agents instead of improving it, ii) the inherent non-stationary nature of FX rates renders a fixed decision-threshold highly ineffective. To address these problems, we propose a novel supervised learning approach that learns to forecast the top-K future FX rates instead of forecasting all the future FX rates, and bases the hold-versus-sell decision on the forecasts (e.g. hold if future FX rate is higher than current FX rate, sell otherwise). Furthermore, to handle the non-stationarity in the FX rates data which poses challenges to the i.i.d. assumption in supervised learning methods, we propose to adaptively learn decision-thresholds based on recent historical episodes. Through extensive empirical evaluation, we show that our approach is the only approach which is able to consistently improve upon a simple heuristic baseline. Further experiments show the inefficacy of state-of-the-art statistical and deep-learning-based forecasting methods as they degrade the performance of the trading agent.