论文标题
南半球冬季中期风暴的强化
The intensification of winter mid-latitude storms in the Southern Hemisphere
论文作者
论文摘要
中纬度风暴的强度追踪了热带特时候的天气和气候现象，因为这些风暴跟踪每天控制降水，温度和风的多年多年变异性。到本世纪末，预计冬季中纬度风暴将在南半球加剧，在整个热带外部造成很大的后果。因此，至关重要的是，能够准确评估人为排放对这些风暴的影响，以改善社会准备，以实现未来的变化。在这里，我们表明当前的气候模型严重低估了近几十年来中纬度风暴轨道的强化。具体而言，从Reanalyses获得的强化已经达到了本世纪的模型末期。发现偏置强度与纬向流中的偏差有关。这些结果质疑气候模型准确预测南半球中部人为排放的未来影响的能力。
The strength of mid-latitude storm tracks shapes weather and climate phenomena in the extra-tropics, as these storm tracks control the daily to multi-decadal variability of precipitation, temperature and winds. By the end of this century, winter mid-latitude storms are projected to intensify in the Southern Hemisphere, with large consequences over the entire extra-tropics. Therefore, it is critical to be able to accurately assess the impacts of anthropogenic emissions on these storms, in order to improve societal preparedness for future changes. Here we show that current climate models severely underestimate the intensification in mid-latitude storm-tracks in recent decades. Specifically, the intensification obtained from reanalyses has already reached the model-projected end of the century intensification. The biased intensification is found to be linked to biases in the zonal flow. These results question the ability of climate models to accurately predict the future impacts of anthropogenic emissions in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes.
