论文标题
东阿尔卑斯山地区的日常雷电气候在公里范围内
Daily-Resolved Lightning Climatology of the Eastern Alpine Region at the Kilometer Scale
论文作者
论文摘要
闪电闪烁是罕见的危险事件。尽管存在这种稀缺性，但普遍的添加剂模型（GAM）成功地为东阿尔卑斯山和周围低地的闪电气候提供了一种前所未有的分辨率，每天4月至9月的每天的$ $^2 $。 GAM增加了季节性，地形锯齿状的影响以及海拔和区域的季节性变化影响，从而结合了分析单元的信息共享相似特征。在特定一天，云到地面排放的概率通常小于1 \，\％，春季迅速增加，随后是高原和秋季的较柔和的逐渐变细。较早的概率在高海拔时较低，但一旦它们的积雪消失就会增加。闪电的区域模式随季节的变化而变化，在今年晚些时候的整体南变化，但细节更复杂。带有锯齿状地形的网格细胞具有较高的闪电概率。
Lightning flashes are rare albeit hazardous events. Despite this scarcity, generalized additive models (GAMs) succeed in producing a climatology of lightning occurrence for the eastern Alps and surrounding lowlands at an unprecedented resolution of 1\,km$^2$ for each day of April through September with data from the ALDIS lightning location system. The GAM adds the effects of seasonality, jaggedness of the terrain, and seasonally varying effects of elevation and region, thus combining information from analysis cells sharing similar characteristics. The probability of a cloud-to-ground discharge over 1\,km$^2$ on a given day is typically less than 1\,\% with a rapid increase in spring, followed by a plateau and a gentler tapering-off in fall. Probabilities early are lower at high elevations but increase once their snow cover is gone. Regional patterns of lightning also vary with season with an overall southward shift later in the year but more complex details. Grid cells with jagged topography have a higher probability of lightning.
