论文标题
在综合和认知不确定性下的影响概率
Impact Probability Under Aleatory And Epistemic Uncertainties
论文作者
论文摘要
当力模型的一部分取决于需要假设的统计分布的未知参数时，我们提出了一种估计上限的方法，以估算潜在危险小行星的影响概率。作为案例研究，我们根据2013年截至2013年的信息考虑了Apophis对2036和2068的钥匙孔的风险评估。在认知不确定性的框架内，在独立性和非相关假设的框架内，我们将分布的参数分配给了Apophis的物理特性，这些族将Yarkovsky扰动和未来的或伯比特（Ausbiate of Bive）的影响定义为Yarkovsky扰动和扭转依据。我们发现2036钥匙孔的$ {\ rm ip} \ leq 5 \ times 10^{ - 5} $，$ {\ rm ip} \ leq 1.6 \ times 10^{ - 5} $ for 2068 keyhole。由于我们探索的各种统计分布，这些上限在很大程度上是保守的选择。
We present an approach to estimate an upper bound for the impact probability of a potentially hazardous asteroid when part of the force model depends on unknown parameters whose statistical distribution needs to be assumed. As case study we consider Apophis' risk assessment for the 2036 and 2068 keyholes based on information available as of 2013. Within the framework of epistemic uncertainties, under the independence and non-correlation assumption, we assign parametric families of distributions to the physical properties of Apophis that define the Yarkovsky perturbation and in turn the future orbital evolution of the asteroid. We find ${\rm IP}\leq 5\times 10^{-5}$ for the 2036 keyhole and ${\rm IP}\leq 1.6\times 10^{-5}$ for the 2068 keyhole. These upper bounds are largely conservative choices due to the rather wide range of statistical distributions that we explored.
