论文标题

用于分析摘要出生历史数据的概率模型

A Probabilistic Model for Analyzing Summary Birth History Data

论文作者

Wilson, Katie, Wakefield, Jon

论文摘要

背景 对五岁以下死亡率的高质量亚国家估计的需求不断增加。在低收入和中等收入的国家中,五岁以下死亡率的负担集中,通常缺乏重要的注册,而提供完整的出生历史数据的家庭调查通常是最可靠的来源。不幸的是,这些数据在空间上是稀疏的,因此从其他来源提取数据以增加可用信息。摘要出生历史是可用数据的很大一部分,并提供了随着时间的流逝和母亲的年龄的分娩和死亡的数量。 客观的 需要使用专门的方法来利用此信息,并且已经使用了以前的黄铜方法和变体。我们希望开发一种基于模型的方法,该方法可以传播错误,并最有效地利用数据。此外,我们努力提供一种没有大型计算开销的方法。 贡献 我们描述了一种基于计算高效的模型方法,该方法允许以自然方式将摘要出生历史和完整的出生历史数据合并为五岁以下死亡率的分析。该方法基于生育能力和死亡率模型,该模型允许在时间和空间上直接平滑,并有可能包括与生育和/或死亡率相关的相关协变量。在将模型应用于马拉维的调查和人口普查数据之前,我们首先检查方法在模拟数据上的行为。

BACKGROUND There is an increasing demand for high quality subnational estimates of under-five mortality. In low and middle income countries, where the burden of under-five mortality is concentrated, vital registration is often lacking and household surveys, which provide full birth history data, are often the most reliable source. Unfortunately, these data are spatially sparse and so data are pulled from other sources to increase the available information. Summary birth histories represent a large fraction of the available data, and provide numbers of births and deaths aggregated over time, along with the mother's age. OBJECTIVE Specialized methods are needed to leverage this information, and previously the Brass method, and variants, have been used. We wish to develop a model-based approach that can propagate errors, and make the most efficient use of the data. Further, we strive to provide a method that does not have large computational overhead. CONTRIBUTION We describe a computationally efficient model-based approach which allows summary birth history and full birth history data to be combined into analyses of under-five mortality in a natural way. The method is based on fertility and mortality models that allow direct smoothing over time and space, with the possibility for including relevant covariates that are associated with fertility and/or mortality. We first examine the behavior of the approach on simulated data, before applying the model to survey and census data from Malawi.

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