论文标题

在活动驱动的网络上的自发行为改变和疾病复兴

Self-initiated behavioural change and disease resurgence on activity-driven networks

论文作者

Gozzi, Nicolò, Scudeler, Martina, Paolotti, Daniela, Baronchelli, Andrea, Perra, Nicola

论文摘要

我们认为人口经历了第一波感染,受到强大,自上而下的政府限制的打断,并且没有产生明显的防止第二波浪潮(即复兴)。随着限制的解除,个人适应了社会行为,以最大程度地减少感染风险。我们考虑两种情况。首先,个人将其整体社会活动减少到其他人口。在第二种情况下,他们在小的同龄人社区(即社交泡沫)中保持正常的社交活动,同时减少与其他人口的社交互动。在这两种情况下,我们都会考虑社交活动与行为改变之间的可能相关性,例如反映某些职业的社会维度。我们对这些场景进行了对这些方案的建模,该场景考虑了在活动驱动的网络上展开的易感性感染的流行模型。广泛的分析和数值结果表明,i)少数非常活跃的人没有改变行为可能会消除大多数人群的努力,ii)正常社交活动的不完善社交泡沫可能不如整体减少社交互动的效率。

We consider a population that experienced a first wave of infections, interrupted by strong, top-down, governmental restrictions and did not develop a significant immunity to prevent a second wave (i.e. resurgence). As restrictions are lifted, individuals adapt their social behaviour to minimize the risk of infection. We consider two scenarios. In the first, individuals reduce their overall social activity towards the rest of the population. In the second scenario, they maintain a normal social activity within a small community of peers (i.e., social bubble) while reducing social interactions with the rest of the population. In both cases, we consider possible correlations between social activity and behaviour change, reflecting for example the social dimension of certain occupations. We model these scenarios considering a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemic model unfolding on activity-driven networks. Extensive analytical and numerical results show that i) a minority of very active individuals not changing behaviour may nullify the efforts of the large majority of the population, and ii) imperfect social bubbles of normal social activity may be less effective than an overall reduction of social interactions.

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