论文标题

使用专家贝叶斯框架破产预测的财务数据分析

Financial Data Analysis Using Expert Bayesian Framework For Bankruptcy Prediction

论文作者

Mukeri, Amir, Shaikh, Habibullah, Gaikwad, D. P.

论文摘要

近年来,破产预测引起了研究人员以及财务风险管理领域的从业人员的关注。为了进行破产预测,过去和当前实际上提出的各种方法依赖会计比以及使用统计建模或机器学习方法。这些模型取得了不同程度的成功。线性判别分析或人工神经网络等模型采用判别性分类技术。他们缺乏包括先前的专家知识的明确规定。在本文中,我们提出了使用专家贝叶斯框架的另一种生成建模途径。拟议框架的最大优势是明确包含专家判断力。另外,提出的方法也提供了一种量化预测不确定性的方法。结果,使用贝叶斯框架构建的模型本质上是高度灵活,可解释和直观的。所提出的方法非常适合高度监管或安全的关键应用,例如金融或医学诊断。在这种情况下,预测中的准确性并不是决策者的唯一关注点。决策者和其他利益相关者也对模型的预测以及解释性不确定性感兴趣。我们从经验上使用概率的编程语言Stan在现实世界数据集上在现实世界数据集上提出了这些好处。我们发现所提出的模型要么与其他现有方法相当或优越。与许多现有的最新方法相比,所产生的模型的假阳性速率也要小得多。实验的相应R代码可在GitHub存储库中获得。

In recent years, bankruptcy forecasting has gained lot of attention from researchers as well as practitioners in the field of financial risk management. For bankruptcy prediction, various approaches proposed in the past and currently in practice relies on accounting ratios and using statistical modeling or machine learning methods. These models have had varying degrees of successes. Models such as Linear Discriminant Analysis or Artificial Neural Network employ discriminative classification techniques. They lack explicit provision to include prior expert knowledge. In this paper, we propose another route of generative modeling using Expert Bayesian framework. The biggest advantage of the proposed framework is an explicit inclusion of expert judgment in the modeling process. Also the proposed methodology provides a way to quantify uncertainty in prediction. As a result the model built using Bayesian framework is highly flexible, interpretable and intuitive in nature. The proposed approach is well suited for highly regulated or safety critical applications such as in finance or in medical diagnosis. In such cases accuracy in the prediction is not the only concern for decision makers. Decision makers and other stakeholders are also interested in uncertainty in the prediction as well as interpretability of the model. We empirically demonstrate these benefits of proposed framework on real world dataset using Stan, a probabilistic programming language. We found that the proposed model is either comparable or superior to the other existing methods. Also resulting model has much less False Positive Rate compared to many existing state of the art methods. The corresponding R code for the experiments is available at Github repository.

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