论文标题
动态的泰勒定律
A Dynamic Taylor's Law
论文作者
论文摘要
泰勒的权力定律(或波动缩放)指出,在可比较的人群中,每个样本的方差与人口平均值的力量大致成正比。已经证明,在包括人口统计学,生物学,经济学,物理学和数学在内的广泛学科中的经验观察证明,它表现出来。 特别是,它已经在涉及人口动态,市场交易,热力学和数量理论的问题中观察到。 为此,许多作者考虑了面板数据,以获取大量法律以及适合这些表达的可能性;本质上,我们旨在考虑无独立的千古行为。因此,我们将研究限制为固定时间序列,并在这种情况下开发了不同的泰勒指数。 从理论的角度来看,人们对这种现象的行为的研究越来越兴趣。这些作品中的大多数都集中在与独立样品有关的所谓静态泰勒。在本文中,我们使用涉及伯恩斯坦块的自称表达式引入了动态泰勒定律,以针对依赖样品。在边际过程的弱依赖性或强大的混合假设下证明了中心极限定理(CLT)。这种新指数的极限行为涉及一系列协方差,与经典框架不同,限制行为涉及边际差异。我们还为适合检查相应的泰勒定律是否在实证研究中的拟合优度测试提供了渐近结果。此外,我们还获得了泰勒指数的一致估计。
Taylor's power law (or fluctuation scaling) states that on comparable populations, the variance of each sample is approximately proportional to a power of the mean of the population. It has been shown to hold by empirical observations in a broad class of disciplines including demography, biology, economics, physics and mathematics. In particular, it has been observed in the problems involving population dynamics, market trading, thermodynamics and number theory. For this many authors consider panel data in order to obtain laws of large numbers and the possibility to fit those expressions; essentially we aim at considering ergodic behaviors without independence. Thus we restrict the study to stationary time series and we develop different Taylor exponents in this setting. From a theoretic point of view, there has been a growing interest on the study of the behavior of such a phenomenon. Most of these works focused on the so-called static Taylor related to independent samples. In this paper, we introduce a dynamic Taylor's law for dependent samples using self-normalised expressions involving Bernstein blocks. A central limit theorem (CLT) is proved under either weak dependence or strong mixing assumptions for the marginal process. The limit behavior of such a new index involves the series of covariances unlike the classic framework where the limit behavior involves the marginal variance. We also provide an asymptotic result for for a goodness-of-fit testing suited to check whether the corresponding dynamical Taylor's law holds in empirical studies. Moreover, we also obtain a consistent estimation of the Taylor's exponent.