论文标题
出于识别的目的,参数限制:断言可能存在限制的实用性?
Parameter Restrictions for the Sake of Identification: Is there Utility in Asserting that Perhaps a Restriction Holds?
论文作者
论文摘要
统计建模可能涉及假设和统计识别之间的张力。可观察到的数据的定律可能不会在不调用关键假设的情况下确定目标参数的价值,而在合理的情况下,在手头的科学环境中,此假设可能并不明显。此外,有许多关键假设实例无法测试,因此我们不能依靠数据来解决目标是否合理识别的问题。在贝叶斯范式中工作,我们考虑了情况的灰色区域,在这种情况下,以参数空间限制的形式进行的关键假设在科学上是合理的,但对于解决的问题而言并不是无可争议的。具体来说,我们研究了如果我们构建先验分布以断言“可能”或“也许”该假设所具有的统计属性。从技术上讲,这只是在使用混合物的先验分布中,仅在假设或几个假设之一中仅将一定的重量放在保存中。但是,尽管该构建体很简单,但很少有文献讨论在完全识别和部分鉴定模型的混合物中使用贝叶斯模型平均的情况。
Statistical modeling can involve a tension between assumptions and statistical identification. The law of the observable data may not uniquely determine the value of a target parameter without invoking a key assumption, and, while plausible, this assumption may not be obviously true in the scientific context at hand. Moreover, there are many instances of key assumptions which are untestable, hence we cannot rely on the data to resolve the question of whether the target is legitimately identified. Working in the Bayesian paradigm, we consider the grey zone of situations where a key assumption, in the form of a parameter space restriction, is scientifically reasonable but not incontrovertible for the problem being tackled. Specifically, we investigate statistical properties that ensue if we structure a prior distribution to assert that `maybe' or `perhaps' the assumption holds. Technically this simply devolves to using a mixture prior distribution putting just some prior weight on the assumption, or one of several assumptions, holding. However, while the construct is straightforward, there is very little literature discussing situations where Bayesian model averaging is employed across a mix of fully identified and partially identified models.