论文标题
2030年巴西电力需求：趋势和挑战
Brazil electricity needs in 2030: trends and challenges
论文作者
论文摘要
对电力的需求和通过可再生能源替代化石燃料的需求一直在稳步增长，这种过渡将对我们的世界产生重大影响，而我们的世界才刚刚开始被理解。巴西是大经济体的一个重要例子，在这种经济中，电力已经由水力，风能和生物质燃烧的热力提供。在这项工作中，我们调查了过去20年来巴西的电力负载曲线，并提出了2030年的四种不同情况，以评估每小时增加国家电网可再生能源的影响。分析表明，由于较高的峰值载荷以及太阳能和风的间歇性，电力需求的增长和水力发电份额的预期减少将显着提高国家电网的可靠性。如果没有任何gigawatt量表的水力发电预测，则增加这些可再生能源的份额应推动水力发电每年运行数百小时以上，而不是过去经历的典型峰值功率水平。为了避免或减少与这种趋势相关的威胁，我们的一种情况表明，在巴西可以大规模部署太阳能热水器，这将通过在晚上早些时候降低峰值负载下的电力需求来对系统的可靠性产生积极影响。
The demand for electricity and the need to replace fossil fuels by renewables have been growing steadily, and this transition will have significant implications to our world that are only beginning to be understood. Brazil is one important example of a big economy where the electricity is already supplied by renewables, such as hydro, wind and biomass-fired thermal power. In this work we investigated the electricity load curves in the last 20 years in Brazil, and four different scenarios for 2030 are proposed in order to evaluate the impact of increasing renewables in the national grid, at an hourly basis. The analysis shows that growing electricity demand and the expected reduction in the hydropower share will significantly increase the reliability of the national grid, due to higher peak load and also due to the intermittency of Solar and Wind. Without any gigawatt scale hydropower projected for the near future, increasing the share of these renewables should push hydropower to operate hundreds of hours every year above typical peak power levels experienced in the past. In order to avoid or reduce the threat related to this trend one of our scenarios suggests that solar water heaters could be massively deployed in Brazil, what would positively impact the system reliability by reducing the electricity demand mostly at peak loads during early evenings.
