论文标题
由区域，部门和气候强迫强迫辐射强迫的来源归因
Source attributions of radiative forcing by regions, sectors, and climate forcers
论文作者
论文摘要
重要的是要了解不同地区，部门或气候抗议者的排放如何在通往巴黎一致性温度目标的途径中发挥作用。然而，由于与各种气候刺激者相关的复杂性，在不同的空间和时间尺度上影响气候系统的各种气候刺激，因此存在方法上的挑战。在这里，我们将最新的历史和未来排放数据用于一组全面的气候抗议者以及土地利用数据集，并应用标准化的边际方法来量化区域，部门和迫使代理商对2C和1.5C目标的强迫贡献。我们表明，大多数全球区域和部门都需要维持不高于当前水平的迫使水平以达到巴黎协议的1.5C目标，而对于2C目标，允许允许比目前水平略高的未来强迫水平。我们的结果说明了负二氧化碳排放的重要性，二氧化碳排放的重要性为-0.75 +/- 0.44 WM-2和-0.42 +/- 0.27 WM-2对2C和1.5C目标。与现有研究相比，在2C和1.5C场景的土地使用反照率上，还发现了较少的负强措或更多的阳性抗议。
It is important to understand how the emissions of different regions, sectors, or climate forcers play a role on pathways toward the Paris Agreement temperature targets. There are however methodological challenges for attributing individual contributions due to complexities associated with a variety of climate forcers affecting the climate system on different spatial and temporal scales. Here, we use the latest historical and future emissions data for a comprehensive set of climate forcers as well as land-use datasets and apply the normalized marginal approach to quantify the forcing contributions of regions, sectors and forcing agents toward the 2C and 1.5C targets. We show that most of the worldwide regions and sectors need to maintain forcing levels not higher than present levels to attain the 1.5C target of the Paris Agreement, while slightly higher future forcing levels than present levels are allowed for the 2C target. Our results illustrate the importance of negative CO2 emissions, which contribute -0.75+/-0.44 Wm-2 and -0.42+/-0.27 Wm-2 to the 2C and 1.5C targets. Less negative forcings, or more positive forcings are also identified for the land-use albedo for the 2C and 1.5C scenarios compared to existing studies.
