论文标题
迈向太阳周期预测的代数方法。计算单个活动区域的最终偶极子贡献
Towards an algebraic method of solar cycle prediction I. Calculating the ultimate dipole contributions of individual active regions
论文作者
论文摘要
我们讨论了一种代数方法的潜在用途来计算太阳轴向偶极矩的值，以太阳能最小值，这被认为是下一个太阳周期中活动水平最可靠的前体。该方法包括总结单个活动区域对太阳轴向偶极矩\ revtwo {在周期结束时的最终贡献。该方法的潜在局限性是其对基础表面通量传输（SFT）模型的依赖性。我们通过分析方法和数值方法证明，活动区域的初始和最终偶极矩贡献的因子与参数仅取决于SFT模型的详细信息，该因素通过参数$η/Δ_U$显示了高斯对纬度的依赖性，其中$η/Δ_U$，其中$η$是超级差异性和$δ_U$ comportional ins equional conte equient of diviveRence of diviveRence of divirid of divirid of divirId of diviveRence of divirid of the diridiD。在与2 $ \ times $ 2D发电机模型中模拟的周期进行比较时，我们进一步证明了与代数方法相关的不准确性很小，该方法可能能够在大部分周期中重现偶极矩值。
We discuss the potential use of an algebraic method to compute the value of the solar axial dipole moment at solar minimum, widely considered to be the most reliable precursor of the activity level in the next solar cycle. The method consists of summing up the ultimate contributions of individual active regions to the solar axial dipole moment \revtwo{at the end of the cycle}. A potential limitation of the approach is its dependence on the underlying surface flux transport (SFT) model details. We demonstrate by both analytical and numerical methods that the factor relating the initial and ultimate dipole moment contributions of an active region displays a Gaussian dependence on latitude with parameters that only depend on details of the SFT model through the parameter $η/Δ_u$ where $η$ is supergranular diffusivity and $Δ_u$ is the divergence of the meridional flow on the equator. In a comparison with cycles simulated in the 2$\times$2D dynamo model we further demonstrate that the inaccuracies associated with the algebraic method are minor and the method may be able to reproduce the dipole moment values in a large majority of cycles.
