论文标题
非线性强迫变化和非迫切性:Enso-Indian季风和全球降水链连接的情况
Nonlinear forced change and nonergodicity: The case of ENSO-Indian monsoon and global precipitation teleconnections
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究了El Nino-Southern振荡(ENSO)与全球降水与印度夏季季风(IM)之间的远程连接的强迫反应,特别是在Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble中。远程连接的强制响应定义为在整体上评估的相关系数的时间依赖性。合奏的变异性要么wrt。在最大协方差分析或规范相关分析或EOF分析的意义上,空间平均值或主要空间模式。我们发现,鉴于所有四种远程连接表示形式,无论是海面温度(SST)还是海平面压力(SLP),都可以强度或一致地增强ENSO-IM远程连接的加强,并在历史时期和在RCP8.5强迫场景下都表征ENSO。从线性回归模型角度来看,这一加强的主要因素是回归系数,即使使用SLP,它也可以胜过ENSO的差异。我们还发现,(1)正式拒绝过时的假设,即,相对于集合本身相等的时间相关系数等于,远程连接的强迫更改通常是非线性的。在这里,平均SST和/或时间相关性降水并不重要。我们还根据测试统计数据提供了全球图的非线性/非迫切性程度的全球地图,这是局部降水与ENSO之间远程连接的强迫变化。
We study the forced response of the teleconnection between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global precipitation in general and the Indian summer monsoon (IM) in particular in the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. The forced response of the teleconnection is defined as the time-dependence of a correlation coefficient evaluated over the ensemble. The ensemble-wise variability is taken either wrt. spatial averages or dominant spatial modes in the sense of Maximal Covariance Analysis or Canonical Correlation Analysis or EOF analysis. We find that the strengthening of the ENSO-IM teleconnection is robustly or consistently featured in view of all four teleconnection representations, whether sea surface temperature (SST) or sea level pressure (SLP) is used to characterise ENSO, and both in the historical period and under the RCP8.5 forcing scenario. The main contributor to this strengthening in terms of a linear regression model is the regression coefficient, which can outcompete even a declining ENSO variability in view of using the SLP. We also find that the forced change of the teleconnection is typically nonlinear by (1) formally rejecting the hypothesis that ergodicity holds, i.e., that expected values of temporal correlation coefficients with respect to the ensemble equal the ensemble-wise correlation coefficient itself, and also showing that (2) the trivial contributions of the forced changes of e.g. the mean SST and/or precipitation to temporal correlations are insignificant here. We also provide, in terms of the test statistics, global maps of the degree of nonlinearity/nonergodicity of the forced change of the teleconnection between local precipitation and ENSO.