论文标题
使用基于加密货币的赌场区块链数据了解赌博行为和风险态度
Understanding Gambling Behavior and Risk Attitudes Using Cryptocurrency-based Casino Blockchain Data
论文作者
论文摘要
赌徒废墟的统计概念表明，赌博具有很大的风险。尽管如此，赌场和互联网上的赌博赌博都是非常受欢迎的活动。近年来，前景理论和实验室控制的实验都被用来提高我们对与赌博相关的风险态度的理解。尽管有理论上的进步，但收集现实生活中的赌博数据，这对于验证预测和实验发现至关重要，这仍然是一个挑战。为了解决此问题，我们从以太坊区块链上收集了从\ emph {Dapp}（分散的应用程序）中收集公开的投注数据，该数据立即发布了每个BET的结果（由每个BET的时间戳，下注，赌注，获胜，用户ID和利润的可能性组成）。这个在线赌场是一个简单的骰子游戏，可让赌徒调整自己的获奖概率。因此，数据集非常适合研究赌博策略以及投注决策中涉及的风险态度的复杂动态。我们通过当前概率理论模型的镜头分析数据集，并发现赌博系统的经验示例。我们的结果揭示了了解风险偏好在人类财务行为和赌博以外的决策中的作用。
The statistical concept of Gambler's Ruin suggests that gambling has a large amount of risk. Nevertheless, gambling at casinos and gambling on the Internet are both hugely popular activities. In recent years, both prospect theory and lab-controlled experiments have been used to improve our understanding of risk attitudes associated with gambling. Despite theoretical progress, collecting real-life gambling data, which is essential to validate predictions and experimental findings, remains a challenge. To address this issue, we collect publicly available betting data from a \emph{DApp} (decentralized application) on the Ethereum Blockchain, which instantly publishes the outcome of every single bet (consisting of each bet's timestamp, wager, probability of winning, userID, and profit). This online casino is a simple dice game that allows gamblers to tune their own winning probabilities. Thus the dataset is well suited for studying gambling strategies and the complex dynamic of risk attitudes involved in betting decisions. We analyze the dataset through the lens of current probability-theoretic models and discover empirical examples of gambling systems. Our results shed light on understanding the role of risk preferences in human financial behavior and decision-makings beyond gambling.
