论文标题

从逻辑 - sigmoid到nlogistic-sigmoid:建模COVID-19大流行生长

From the logistic-sigmoid to nlogistic-sigmoid: modelling the COVID-19 pandemic growth

论文作者

Somefun, Oluwasegun A., Akingbade, Kayode, Dahunsi, Folasade

论文摘要

现实世界增长过程,例如流行病的生长,本质上是嘈杂的,不确定的,并且通常涉及多个生长阶段。已经提出并应用了逻辑 - sigmoid函数,并将其应用于建模此类生长过程的领域。但是,现有的定义是有限的,因为它们不认为增长是二维的限制。此外,随着生长阶段的数量的增加,逻辑参数的建模和估计变得更加繁琐,需要更复杂的工具和分析。为了解决这一问题,我们将Nlogistic-Sigmoid函数引入了对物流生长的逻辑生长的紧凑,统一的现代定义,用于建模这种现实世界的生长现象。此外,我们介绍了逻辑 - sigmoid曲线的两个特征指标,这些指标可以在每个维度中对生长过程的状态提供更强大的投影。具体来说,我们将此功能应用于迄今为止世界和世界各国的感染和死亡案件的COVID-19期限序列数据进行建模。我们的结果表明,世界受影响国家的统计学意义大于或等于99%,表现出正在进行的Covid-19爆发的单个或多个阶段的模式,例如美国。因此,作为机器学习工具,这种现代的逻辑定义及其指标可以帮助提供更清晰,更强大的监视和量化正在进行的大流行增长过程。

Real-world growth processes, such as epidemic growth, are inherently noisy, uncertain and often involve multiple growth phases. The logistic-sigmoid function has been suggested and applied in the domain of modelling such growth processes. However, existing definitions are limiting, as they do not consider growth as restricted in two-dimension. Additionally, as the number of growth phases increase, the modelling and estimation of logistic parameters becomes more cumbersome, requiring more complex tools and analysis. To remedy this, we introduce the nlogistic-sigmoid function as a compact, unified modern definition of logistic growth for modelling such real-world growth phenomena. Also, we introduce two characteristic metrics of the logistic-sigmoid curve that can give more robust projections on the state of the growth process in each dimension. Specifically, we apply this function to modelling the daily World Health Organization published COVID-19 time-series data of infection and death cases of the world and countries of the world to date. Our results demonstrate statistically significant goodness of fit greater than or equal to 99% for affected countries of the world exhibiting patterns of either single or multiple stages of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, such as the USA. Consequently, this modern logistic definition and its metrics, as a machine learning tool, can help to provide clearer and more robust monitoring and quantification of the ongoing pandemic growth process.

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