论文标题

从本地协议到全球协议的定时切换可以加速气候变化

A well-timed switch from local to global agreements accelerates climate change mitigation

论文作者

Karatayev, Vadim A., Vasconcelos, Vítor V., Lafuite, Anne-Sophie, Levin, Simon A., Bauch, Chris T., Anand, Madhur

论文摘要

最近在缓解气候变化方面进行合作的尝试突出了大规模协议的有限效力,而当对缓解的承诺是昂贵且最初罕见的。使用特定地区缓解协议的自下而上的方法有望取得更大的成功,而付出了减缓全球采用的代价。在这里,我们表明,与仅同时使用本地,仅全球或两种协议类型相比,从区域谈判到全球谈判的时机切换急剧加速了气候缓解。这突出了缓解激励措施的规模特定作用:当地的激励措施利用了区域差异(例如,最近的灾难激励缓解措施)通过提交早期补习区域进行了激励,此后,全球协议在晚期补充区域中吸引了该地区。我们得出的结论是,全球协议是克服地区缓解和经济竞争支出的关键,但一旦区域协议很普遍,应尝试尝试。逐渐上升的努力同样可以在较小的尺度上加速缓解,例如,昂贵的生态系统恢复最初面临有限的公共和立法支持。

Recent attempts at cooperating on climate change mitigation highlight the limited efficacy of large-scale agreements, when commitment to mitigation is costly and initially rare. Bottom-up approaches using region-specific mitigation agreements promise greater success, at the cost of slowing global adoption. Here, we show that a well-timed switch from regional to global negotiations dramatically accelerates climate mitigation compared to using only local, only global, or both agreement types simultaneously. This highlights the scale-specific roles of mitigation incentives: local incentives capitalize on regional differences (e.g., where recent disasters incentivize mitigation) by committing early-adopting regions, after which global agreements draw in late-adopting regions. We conclude that global agreements are key to overcoming the expenses of mitigation and economic rivalry among regions but should be attempted once regional agreements are common. Gradually up-scaling efforts could likewise accelerate mitigation at smaller scales, for instance when costly ecosystem restoration initially faces limited public and legislative support.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源