论文标题
估计墨西哥的COVID-19病例和繁殖数量
Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Mexico
论文作者
论文摘要
在本报告中，我们拟合了一个半机械贝叶斯分层模型，以描述墨西哥covid-19-19。我们获得了两种流行病学措施：感染的数量和繁殖数量。估计基于死亡数据。因此，我们预计我们的估计值比报告的病例数量估计的攻击率更准确。
In this report we fit a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to describe the Mexican COVID-19 epidemic. We obtain two epidemiological measures: the number of infections and the reproduction number. Estimations are based on death data. Hence, we expect our estimates to be more accurate than the attack rates estimated from the reported number of cases.
