论文标题
通过应用程序进行流行追踪和缓解的消息通话方法
A message-passing approach to epidemic tracing and mitigation with apps
论文作者
论文摘要
随着新的大流行威胁的打击，需要科学框架来了解流行病的发展。能够追踪联系人的移动应用程序的使用对于控制新的感染案例并包含进一步传播至关重要。在这里，我们提出了一种使用渗透和消息的理论方法 - 通过渗透技术，即接触追踪的作用，在减轻流行波浪中的作用。我们展示了应用程序采用水平的增加如何提高流行阈值的价值，当高度节点被优先定位时，最终将最大化。将分析结果与广泛的蒙特卡洛模拟进行了比较，该模拟在均质和异质网络中均显示出良好的一致性。这些结果对于量化接触追踪应用程序所需的采用水平很重要，以有效缓解流行病。
With the hit of new pandemic threats, scientific frameworks are needed to understand the unfolding of the epidemic. The use of mobile apps that are able to trace contacts is of utmost importance in order to control new infected cases and contain further propagation. Here we present a theoretical approach using both percolation and message--passing techniques, to the role of contact tracing, in mitigating an epidemic wave. We show how the increase of the app adoption level raises the value of the epidemic threshold, which is eventually maximized when high-degree nodes are preferentially targeted. Analytical results are compared with extensive Monte Carlo simulations showing good agreement for both homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. These results are important to quantify the level of adoption needed for contact-tracing apps to be effective in mitigating an epidemic.
