论文标题
关闭并重新开放：学校在欧洲的Covid-19中的作用
Shut and re-open: the role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in Europe
论文作者
论文摘要
我们通过将丹麦，挪威，瑞典和德国国家作为案例研究来调查学校关闭以及随后重新开放对Covid-19的传播的影响。通过比较在不同干预措施下每天住院或确认病例的增长率，我们提供了证据表明，在实施后约9天大约9天的增长速度降低，学校关闭的效果可见。有限的出勤率，例如年长的学生参加考试或年轻一年的部分回报，似乎并没有显着影响社区传播。在控制或抑制该流行病的同时，在丹麦或挪威等国家（社区传播通常很低的国家）进行了大规模重新开放。但是，在社区传播相对较高的德国等国家，学校的重新开放可能会导致增长率的显着提高。我们的发现强调了对重新开放策略进行谨慎评估的必要性，这些策略确保了低教室的入住率和坚实的基础设施，以快速识别和隔离新的感染。
We investigate the effect of school closure and subsequent reopening on the transmission of COVID-19, by considering Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and German states as case studies. By comparing the growth rates in daily hospitalisations or confirmed cases under different interventions, we provide evidence that the effect of school closure is visible as a reduction in the growth rate approximately 9 days after implementation. Limited school attendance, such as older students sitting exams or the partial return of younger year groups, does not appear to significantly affect community transmission. A large-scale reopening of schools while controlling or suppressing the epidemic appears feasible in countries such as Denmark or Norway, where community transmission is generally low. However, school reopening can contribute to significant increases in the growth rate in countries like Germany, where community transmission is relatively high. Our findings underscore the need for a cautious evaluation of reopening strategies that ensure low classroom occupancy and a solid infrastructure to quickly identify and isolate new infections.
