论文标题
具有集成家庭对齐方法的人群微仿真模型
A demographic microsimulation model with an integrated household alignment method
论文作者
论文摘要
许多动态的微仿真模型已经表明了他们使用基于非DATA的家庭形成和解散规则合理投射详细人口和家庭的能力。尽管这些规则允许建模者简化家庭建设的变化,但它们通常在复制家庭预测或回顾性地应用的家庭数量方面缺乏。因此,这种模型对家庭规模和其他与家庭相关的属性有偏见的估计,在对家庭规模敏感的应用中(例如旅行需求和住房需求建模)中的应用失去了实用性。尽管如此,这些及其相关缺点的人口显微仿真模型通常被用于评估各种计划政策,这可能会导致误导性判断。在本文中,我们通过为不同的生活事件引入完全集成的模型系统来为人口微观仿真的文献做出贡献,其中家庭对齐方法调整了家庭规模分布以与任何给定的目标分布紧密一致。此外,可以包括一些通常难以建模的人口事件,例如将移民家庭纳入人群中。我们说明了家庭对齐方法的一个示例,并将其在动态微仿真模型中进行了测试,该模型我们使用dymcore(在R中的通用微仿真工具包)开发了该模型,以显示该方法的潜在改善和弱点。该模型的实施已在GitHub上公开可用。
Many dynamic microsimulation models have shown their ability to reasonably project detailed population and households using non-data based household formation and dissolution rules. Although, those rules allow modellers to simplify changes in the household construction, they typically fall short in replicating household projections or if applied retrospectively the observed household numbers. Consequently, such models with biased estimation for household size and other household related attributes lose their usefulness in applications that are sensitive to household size, such as in travel demand and housing demand modelling. Nonetheless, these demographic microsimulation models with their associated shortcomings have been commonly used to assess various planning policies which can result in misleading judgements. In this paper, we contribute to the literature of population microsimulation by introducing a fully integrated system of models for different life event where a household alignment method adjusts household size distribution to closely align with any given target distribution. Furthermore, some demographic events that are generally difficult to model, such as incorporating immigrant families into a population, can be included. We illustrated an example of the household alignment method and put it to test in a dynamic microsimulation model that we developed using dymiumCore, a general-purpose microsimulation toolkit in R, to show potential improvements and weaknesses of the method. The implementation of this model has been made publicly available on GitHub.