论文标题
COVID-19的传播中的更改点质疑德国非药物干预措施的有效性
Change points in the spread of COVID-19 question the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions in Germany
论文作者
论文摘要
目的：针对德国SARS-COV-2传播的非药品干预措施包括取消大众事件（从3月8日起），学校和儿童日托设施的关闭（从3月16日起）以及“锁定”（从3月23日起）。这项研究试图评估这些干预措施的有效性，以揭示它们对感染的影响。方法：通过纳入孵化期和经验报告延迟，从德国官方病例数据中估算了感染日期。估算了感染和繁殖数量的指数增长模型，并研究了时间序列中的变更点。结果：3月10日（CI [7，9]），3月10日（CI [9，11]和3月3日（CI [2，4]），每日和累积感染以及繁殖数量的显着下降以及稳定分别在3月底发现了新的感染点。 （CI [18，20]，在一个低于一个的水平上，繁殖数量在2020年3月初的下降归因于相对较小的干预措施，而自愿行为的额外效果则可以清楚地征求措施。受到真实感染日期的估计和测试量的影响的阻碍。
Aims: Nonpharmaceutical interventions against the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany included the cancellation of mass events (from March 8), closures of schools and child day care facilities (from March 16) as well as a "lockdown" (from March 23). This study attempts to assess the effectiveness of these interventions in terms of revealing their impact on infections over time. Methods: Dates of infections were estimated from official German case data by incorporating the incubation period and an empirical reporting delay. Exponential growth models for infections and reproduction numbers were estimated and investigated with respect to change points in the time series. Results: A significant decline of daily and cumulative infections as well as reproduction numbers is found at March 8 (CI [7, 9]), March 10 (CI [9, 11] and March 3 (CI [2, 4]), respectively. Further declines and stabilizations are found in the end of March. There is also a change point in new infections at April 19 (CI [18, 20]), but daily infections still show a negative growth. From March 19 (CI [18, 20]), the reproduction numbers fluctuate on a level below one. Conclusions: The decline of infections in early March 2020 can be attributed to relatively small interventions and voluntary behavioural changes. Additional effects of later interventions cannot be detected clearly. Liberalizations of measures did not induce a re-increase of infections. Thus, the effectiveness of most German interventions remains questionable. Moreover, assessing of interventions is impeded by the estimation of true infection dates and the influence of test volume.
