论文标题
急诊室患者等待时间的概率预测
Probabilistic Forecasting of Patient Waiting Times in an Emergency Department
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究了急诊科（ED）中各个患者等待时间的概率分布的估计。我们的功能丰富的建模允许在等待过程中揭示等待时间估计的动态更新和完善等待时间估计（例如，患者和ED特定信息（例如，患者状况，ED拥塞水平）。还讨论了与患者进行预测不确定性以及实践实施此方法有关的方面。
We study the estimation of the probability distribution of individual patient waiting times in an emergency department (ED). Our feature-rich modelling allows for dynamic updating and refinement of waiting time estimates as patient- and ED-specific information (e.g., patient condition, ED congestion levels) is revealed during the waiting process. Aspects relating to communicating forecast uncertainty to patients, and implementing this methodology in practice, are also discussed.
