论文标题
航空运输网络的演变中的复发
Recurrence in the evolution of air transport networks
论文作者
论文摘要
随着时间的推移，航空运输网络的变化可能是由于载体之间的竞争，航空行业法规的变化以及恐怖袭击和流行病爆发等社会经济事件引起的。这种网络变化可能反映了每个运营商的公司策略。在本研究中，我们提出了一个框架，用于从复发的角度在离散时间内分析时间网络中的进化模式。复发意味着网络结构返回到过去相对较近的一个。从1987年到2019年，我们将提出的方法应用于美国的四个主要载体。我们发现，在自相关，周期性的强度以及数十年来这些数量的变化方面，携带者在不同的方面有所不同。我们还发现，单个载体的网络结构不时突然变化。这种网络变化反映了他们在枢纽机场运营的变化，而不是与航空业密切相关的著名社会经济事件。预计所提出的方法将有助于揭示航空联盟的演变和对自然灾害或传染病的反应，以及表征社会，生物学和其他网络的演变。
Changes in air transport networks over time may be induced by competition among carriers, changes in regulations on airline industry, and socioeconomic events such as terrorist attacks and epidemic outbreaks. Such network changes may reflect corporate strategies of each carrier. In the present study, we propose a framework for analyzing evolution patterns in temporal networks in discrete time from the viewpoint of recurrence. Recurrence implies that the network structure returns to one relatively close to that in the past. We applied the proposed methods to four major carriers in the US from 1987 to 2019. We found that the carriers were different in terms of the autocorrelation, strength of periodicity, and changes in these quantities across decades. We also found that the network structure of the individual carriers abruptly changes from time to time. Such a network change reflects changes in their operation at their hub airports rather than famous socioeconomic events that look closely related to airline industry. The proposed methods are expected to be useful for revealing, for example, evolution of airline alliances and responses to natural disasters or infectious diseases, as well as characterizing evolution of social, biological, and other networks over time.
