论文标题
一个定量框架，用于探索COVID-19锁定的退出策略
A quantitative framework for exploring exit strategies from the COVID-19 lockdown
论文作者
论文摘要
遵循许多国家通过对当前大流行作用的高度限制措施，被SARS-COV-2感染的个体数量以及相关的死亡人数正在稳步减少。这一事实与无限期地保持锁定的不可能提出了一个至关重要的问题，即是否有可能根据定量分析设计退出策略。在严格的数学结果的指导下，我们表明这确实是可能的：我们提出了一种可靠的数值算法，该算法可以计算出由于增加给定倍数增加的接触数量而导致的累积死亡数量，仅使用给定的输入，仅使用锁定期间所有数据中最可靠的数据，即累积的死亡人数。
Following the highly restrictive measures adopted by many countries for combating the current pandemic, the number of individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 and the associated number of deaths is steadily decreasing. This fact, together with the impossibility of maintaining the lockdown indefinitely, raises the crucial question of whether it is possible to design an exit strategy based on quantitative analysis. Guided by rigorous mathematical results, we show that this is indeed possible: we present a robust numerical algorithm which can compute the cumulative number of deaths that will occur as a result of increasing the number of contacts by a given multiple, using as input only the most reliable of all data available during the lockdown, namely the cumulative number of deaths.
