论文标题
估计COVID-19大流行中感染病例的数量
Estimating the Number of Infected Cases in COVID-19 Pandemic
论文作者
论文摘要
19009年大流行对人类生活造成了重大干扰。广泛的社交焦虑背后的重要原因是大流行的巨大不确定性。根本的不确定性是感染了多少百分比或多少百分比。在本地，国家或全球层面上有有关大流行的各种统计数据的已发布和经常更新的数据。但是，由于各种原因，报告的数字未包括许多情况。我们提出了一种结构化方法，以估算未报告的病例数量，在该案例中，我们区分了报告数量后期到达的病例，以及那些患有轻度或没有症状的病例，因此根本没有被任何医疗系统捕获。我们使用报告后数据来估计与后者相匹配的前者和人口。我们估计，截至2020年4月20日4月20日，应通过乘以220.54％的倍数来纠正美国受感染病例的数量，而美国人口中的感染率估计为0.53％，这意味着案件死亡率为2.85％，即2.85％，即2020年3月2日，夏天的3.4％均在2020年左右的3.4％所建议的。病例死亡率降至2.09％，无症状案件的比率从前夏季35-40％降至20-25％左右。
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major disturbance to human life. An important reason behind the widespread social anxiety is the huge uncertainty about the pandemic. A fundamental uncertainty is how many or what percentage of people have been infected. There are published and frequently updated data on various statistics of the pandemic, at local, country or global level. However, due to various reasons, many cases were not included in those reported numbers. We propose a structured approach for the estimation of the number of unreported cases, where we distinguish cases that arrive late in the reported numbers and those who had mild or no symptoms and thus were not captured by any medical system at all. We use post-report data for the estimation of the former and population matching to the latter. We estimate that the reported number of infected cases in the US should be corrected by multiplying a factor of 220.54% as of Apr 20, 2020, while the infection ratio out of the US population is estimated to be 0.53%, implying a case mortality rate at 2.85% which is close to the 3.4% suggested by the WHO in Mar 2020. Towards the end of the summer of 2020, the overall infection ratio of the US rises to 2.49% while the case mortality decreases to 2.09%, and the ratio of asymptomatic cases out of all infected cases reduces from the pre-summer 35-40% to around 20-25%.
