论文标题

如何选择观察者

How to Select Observers

论文作者

Garisto, Robert

论文摘要

在给定的情况下,物理,数学和哲学的许多问题涉及观察者,这导致有关观察者特定信息是否应影响某些结果或假设的概率的辩论。我们的目的不是倡导这种观察者的选择效果,而是表明任何此类效果在很大程度上取决于所做的假设。我们专注于关于“世界末日效应”的存在的辩论 - 观察者索引信息是否应导致一个人偏爱较少的观察者的可能性,这被认为对宇宙学模型具有影响。我们的核心目标是通过引入形式主义提出裸露的假设,并解决一个关键问题,并在此类问题中尚未清楚地表达出一个关键问题,以调和文献中明显的不一致之处:是否是通过 *从 *或 *中选择 *在 *世界中选择观察者。在前者中,通常有观察者的选择效应,而在后者通常没有。这使我们将所谓的“包容 *”与 *独家 *选择区分开,以及它们与多元宇宙概念的关系。然后,我们放松了所有观察者同样典型的假设,并考虑了Boltzmann Brains的问题,表明典型性可以在解决问题中发挥作用。然后,我们强调对规模不变问题的需求,这使我们分析了J. Richard Gott的问题。这一切都使我们能够分析世界末日和通用世界末日的论点。我们发现没有世界末日效应,没有一组我们发现有些不合理的假设。然后,我们利用形式主义来解决哲学界的辩论,称为“睡美人问题”。最后,我们以启发式摘要结束,没有方程式,并指出了这一研究线的未来方向。

A number of problems in physics, mathematics, and philosophy involve observers in given situations which lead to debates about whether observer-specific information should affect the probability for some outcome or hypothesis. Our purpose is not to advocate for such observer selection effects, but rather to show that any such effects depend greatly on the assumptions made. We focus on the debate about the existence of a `Doomsday effect'---whether observer index information should cause one to favor possibilities with fewer observers, which has been argued to have implications for models of cosmology. Our central goal is to reconcile the apparent inconsistencies in the literature by introducing a formalism to lay bare assumptions made and address a key issue that has not been clearly articulated in such problems: whether the observer is selected by *picking from* or *being in* a set of worlds. In the former there generally are observer selection effects, and in the latter there generally are not. This leads us to differentiate what we call *inclusive* from *exclusive* selection, and how they relate to the concept of a multiverse. Then we relax the assumption that all observers are equally typical, and consider the problem of Boltzmann brains, showing that typicality can play a role in solving the problem. We then stress the need for scale-invariant questions, which causes us to analyze J. Richard Gott's approach to the problem. This all allows us to analyze the Doomsday and Universal Doomsday arguments. We find that there is no Doomsday effect, absent a set of assumptions we find somewhat unreasonable. Then we use our formalism to resolve a debate in the philosophy community called the `Sleeping Beauty Problem.' Finally, we conclude with a heuristic summary, free from equations, and point to possible future directions of this line of research.

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