论文标题

在约束满意度宏观经济模型中良好的物种形成和内源性业务周期

Good speciation and endogenous business cycles in a constraint satisfaction macroeconomic model

论文作者

Sharma, Dhruv, Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, Tarzia, Marco, Zamponi, Francesco

论文摘要

我们介绍了基于原型代理的宏观经济模型,其核心是预算限制。该模型与一类约束满意度问题(CSP)有关,这些问题已在计算机科学中进行了彻底研究。 CSP范式允许我们提出一种替代价格设定的机制:鉴于代理商的偏好和预算,哪种价格集可以满足最大代理数量?这种方法允许在简化的框架中将经济中的生产和产出耦合到允许的债务水平。在我们的模型中,我们确定了三种不同的制度,以改变每个代理商在违约之前可以积累的债务数量。在债务的限制非常宽松的情况下,存在导致同步破产波浪的内源性危机。在相反的债务约束的相反制度中,破产率极高,经济仍然没有结构。在中级政权中,经济稳定,破产率非常低,没有骨料危机。第三条制度显示了丰富的现象学:该系统自发,动态地自组织以一组便宜且昂贵的商品(即某种“物种形成”),其开关是由随机波动和反馈循环触发的。我们的分析证实了债务水平在经济稳定性中起着的核心作用。更普遍地,我们的模型表明,在单个量表上的约束可以在总级别生成高度复杂的模式。

We introduce a prototype agent-based model of the macroeconomy, with budgetary constraints at its core. The model is related to a class of constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs), which has been thoroughly investigated in computer science. The CSP paradigm allows us to propose an alternative price-setting mechanism: given agents' preferences and budgets, what set of prices satisfies the maximum number of agents? Such an approach permits the coupling of production and output within the economy to the allowed level of debt in a simplified framework. Within our model, we identify three different regimes upon varying the amount of debt that each agent can accumulate before defaulting. In presence of a very loose constraint on debt, endogenous crises leading to waves of synchronized bankruptcies are present. In the opposite regime of very tight debt constraining, the bankruptcy rate is extremely high and the economy remains structure-less. In an intermediate regime, the economy is stable with very low bankruptcy rate and no aggregate-level crises. This third regime displays a rich phenomenology:the system spontaneously and dynamically self-organizes in a set of cheap and expensive goods (i.e. some kind of "speciation"), with switches triggered by random fluctuations and feedback loops. Our analysis confirms the central role that debt levels play in the stability of the economy. More generally, our model shows that constraints at the individual scale can generate highly complex patterns at the aggregate level.

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