论文标题
响应措施对德国和瑞士的共同19-19相关住院和死亡率的影响
The Impact of Response Measures on COVID-19-Related Hospitalization and Death Rates in Germany and Switzerland
论文作者
论文摘要
我们评估了在德国和瑞士实施的COVID-19反应措施对与COVID-19与COVID相关的住院和死亡率累积的影响。我们的分析利用了这样一个事实，即在某些锁定措施生效时，在某些地区的流行比相对于流行病的区域特定开始，并与较早的开始日期进行比较。当估计措施相对时机的影响时，我们通过线性回归（德国和瑞士），双重稳健估计（德国）或合成控制（瑞士）来控制区域特征和初始流行趋势。我们发现，对于这两个国家，相对较晚的措施的暴露需要在流行病爆发后特定地区的累积住院和死亡率更高，这表明早期的措施比以后的措施更有效。对于德国，我们还根据跨区域变化评估了宵禁（如在状态的一部分中引入）。我们没有发现宵禁对禁止2个以上人群的联邦实施的接触限制的任何影响。最后，对瑞士的移动性模式的分析表明，在降低的移动性方面，锁定的行为效应是立即的行为效应。
We assess the impact of COVID-19 response measures implemented in Germany and Switzerland on cumulative COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates. Our analysis exploits the fact that the epidemic was more advanced in some regions than in others when certain lockdown measures came into force, based on measuring health outcomes relative to the region-specific start of the epidemic and comparing outcomes across regions with earlier and later start dates. When estimating the effect of the relative timing of measures, we control for regional characteristics and initial epidemic trends by linear regression (Germany and Switzerland), doubly robust estimation (Germany), or synthetic controls (Switzerland). We find for both countries that a relatively later exposure to the measures entails higher cumulative hospitalization and death rates on region-specific days after the outbreak of the epidemic, suggesting that an earlier imposition of measures is more effective than a later one. For Germany, we also evaluate curfews (as introduced in a subset of states) based on cross-regional variation. We do not find any effects of curfews on top of the federally imposed contact restriction that banned groups of more than 2 individuals. Finally, an analysis of mobility patterns in Switzerland shows an immediate behavioral effect of the lockdown in terms of reduced mobility.
