论文标题
SARS-COV-2在新兴经济体中SARS-COV-2进化的第二高峰的潜力是什么？考虑到非正式经济的SirASD模型的见解
What is the potential for a second peak in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in emerging and developing economies? Insights from a SIRASD model considering the informal economy
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究了易感感染的复发性 - 症状 - 症状（SIRASD）模型的潜在情景。作为一种新颖性，我们认为在新兴和发展中国家观察到的社会经济属性之后，他们遵守社会疏远政策的程度有所不同。考虑从巴西SARS-COV-2传播的数据估计的流行病学参数 - 在那里有很大的人口使他们生活在非正式经济中，因此很容易遵循自我隔离 - 我们断言，如果限制措施过早取消了，即，即连续销量的一周降低了一个新案例的一周，那么这是新的数量，很可能是新案例的一周。我们的方法对于任何参与非正式经济的人数是总劳动力的很大比例的任何国家。总而言之，我们的结果指出了目标政策对支持非正式经济中的人们正确遵守大流行期间的预防措施的关键相关性。
We study the potential scenarios from a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Asymptomatic-Symptomatic-Dead (SIRASD) model. As a novelty, we consider populations that differ in their degree of compliance with social distancing policies following socioeconomic attributes that are observed in emerging and developing countries. Considering epidemiological parameters estimated from data of the propagation of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil -- where there is a significant stake of the population making their living in the informal economy and thus prone to not follow self-isolation -- we assert that if the confinement measures are lifted too soon, namely as much as one week of consecutive declining numbers of new cases, it is very likely the appearance of a second peak. Our approach should be valid for any country where the number of people involved in the informal economy is a large proportion of the total labor force. In summary, our results point out the crucial relevance of target policies for supporting people in the informal economy to properly comply with preventive measures during the pandemic.
