论文标题
在德国的区域层面上，将致命的Covid-19感染现成
Nowcasting fatal COVID-19 infections on a regional level in Germany
论文作者
论文摘要
我们分析了与Covid-19感染有关的死亡率的时间和区域结构。我们将每个死者患者的死亡日期与感染的相应日期联系起来，从而导致了一个现象模型，该模型使我们能够估算当今的感染数量，这些感染将在以后的日期证明是致命的。这些数字被分解为德国地区一级。鉴于死亡计数通常提供了有关疾病传播的更可靠信息，而感染数量不可避免地依赖于测试策略和能力，因此提出的模型和所提出的结果可以使得对德国大流行的当前状态获得可靠的见解。
We analyse the temporal and regional structure in mortality rates related to COVID-19 infections. We relate the fatality date of each deceased patient to the corresponding day of registration of the infection, leading to a nowcasting model which allows us to estimate the number of present-day infections that will, at a later date, prove to be fatal. The numbers are broken down to the district level in Germany. Given that death counts generally provide more reliable information on the spread of the disease compared to infection counts, which inevitably depend on testing strategy and capacity, the proposed model and the presented results allow to obtain reliable insight into the current state of the pandemic in Germany.
