论文标题
人为强迫的北极扩增：矢量自回归分析
Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
2020年9月15日，北极海冰范围（SIE）在历史上排名第二，并保持下降。对反馈循环如何扩增外部二氧化碳强迫的影响的理解仍然有限。我们提出了varctic，它是旨在捕获和推断北极反馈环的矢量自动重新收入（VAR）。 VAR是动态的同时方程系统，通常估计以预测和理解多个宏观经济时间序列的相互作用。 Varctic是成熟气候模型和纯粹的统计方法之间的偏见折衷，通常对基本机制几乎没有解释。到2060年代，我们完全无条件的预测在9月份达到了0。脉冲响应函数表明，人为二氧化碳的发射冲击对SIE具有异常耐用的影响 - SIE没有其他冲击。我们发现基于反照率和厚度的反馈是二氧化碳异常在短/介质运行中影响SIE的主要扩增通道。此外，有条件的预测分析表明，SIE的未来路径至关重要地取决于二氧化碳排放的演变，其结果范围从恢复SIE到2050年代达到0。最后，表明反照率和厚度反馈在加速预测的Sie朝着0的速度加速方面起着重要作用。
On September 15th 2020, Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) ranked second-to-lowest in history and keeps trending downward. The understanding of how feedback loops amplify the effects of external CO2 forcing is still limited. We propose the VARCTIC, which is a Vector Autoregression (VAR) designed to capture and extrapolate Arctic feedback loops. VARs are dynamic simultaneous systems of equations, routinely estimated to predict and understand the interactions of multiple macroeconomic time series. The VARCTIC is a parsimonious compromise between full-blown climate models and purely statistical approaches that usually offer little explanation of the underlying mechanism. Our completely unconditional forecast has SIE hitting 0 in September by the 2060's. Impulse response functions reveal that anthropogenic CO2 emission shocks have an unusually durable effect on SIE -- a property shared by no other shock. We find Albedo- and Thickness-based feedbacks to be the main amplification channels through which CO2 anomalies impact SIE in the short/medium run. Further, conditional forecast analyses reveal that the future path of SIE crucially depends on the evolution of CO2 emissions, with outcomes ranging from recovering SIE to it reaching 0 in the 2050's. Finally, Albedo and Thickness feedbacks are shown to play an important role in accelerating the speed at which predicted SIE is heading towards 0.
