论文标题

快速扩散的线条沿线传播

Propagation of epidemics along lines with fast diffusion

论文作者

Berestycki, Henri, Roquejoffre, Jean-Michel, Rossi, Luca

论文摘要

早就知道,流行病可以沿着通讯路线(例如道路)行驶。在目前的199年流行病中,已经观察到主要道路在意大利增强了其传播。我们提出了一个新的流行病传播模型,该模型表现出这种影响并允许进行定量分析。该模型由带有扩散的经典$ SIR $模型组成,并添加了一个额外的隔间,由受感染的个体形成,是在快速扩散线上行驶的。考虑到线上和其他域中的个人之间的交流。经典的转换使我们能够将所提出的模型减少到类似于我们先前引入的模型[5],以描述通过快速扩散线来增强生物学入侵的能力。我们确定了最小的传播速度的存在,我们表明它可能很大,即使基本的繁殖数$ r_0 $接近$ 1 $。最终状态的更微妙的定性特征(显示了线路的重要影响)也得到了证明。

It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of propagation of epidemics which exhibits this effect and allows for a quantitative analysis. The model consists of a classical $SIR$ model with diffusion, to which an additional compartment is added, formed by the infected individuals travelling on a line of fast diffusion. Exchanges between individuals on the line and in the rest of the domain are taken into account. A classical transformation allows us to reduce the proposed model to a system analogous to one we had previously introduced [5] to describe the enhancement of biological invasions by lines of fast diffusion. We establish the existence of a minimal spreading speed and we show that it may be quite large, even when the basic reproduction number $R_0$ is close to $1$. More subtle qualitative features of the final state, showing the important influence of the line, are also proved here.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源