论文标题
基于ACE/基于CRIS观察的银河系宇宙射线重核II模型II
An ACE/CRIS-observation-based Galactic Cosmic Rays heavy nuclei spectra model II
论文作者
论文摘要
开发了基于观测的基于观测的银河宇宙射线（GCR）光谱模型，用于重核。 Zhao and Qin（J. Geophys。介绍了光谱。该模型可以通过将模型参数与连续的黑子数（SSN）记录相关联，可以重现过去并预测未来的GRCR强度。对于奇数甚至太阳周期，太阳能对GCR调制的影响被分别考虑。 Compared with other comprehensive GCR models, our modeling results are satisfyingly consistent with the GCR spectral measurements from ACE/SIS and IMP-8, and have comparable prediction accuracy as the Badhwar & O'Neill 2014 model.A detailed error analysis is also provided.Finally, the GCR carbon and iron nuclei fluxes for the subsequent two solar cycles (SC 25 and 26) are predicted and they show a potential trend in reduced通量振幅，据怀疑与可能的弱太阳循环有关。
An observation-based Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) spectral model for heavy nuclei is developed. Zhao and Qin (J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys.118, 1837(2013)) proposed an empirical elemental GCR spectra model for nuclear charge 5-28 over the energy range from 30 to 500 MeV/nuc, which is proved to be successful in predicting yearly averaged GCR heavy nuclei spectra.Based on the latest highly statistically precise measurements from ACE/CRIS,a further elemental GCR model with monthly averaged spectra is presented. The model can reproduce the past and predict the futureGCR intensity monthly by correlating model parameters with thecontinuous sunspot number (SSN) record. The effects of solar activity on GCR modulation are considered separately for odd and even solar cycles. Compared with other comprehensive GCR models, our modeling results are satisfyingly consistent with the GCR spectral measurements from ACE/SIS and IMP-8, and have comparable prediction accuracy as the Badhwar & O'Neill 2014 model.A detailed error analysis is also provided.Finally, the GCR carbon and iron nuclei fluxes for the subsequent two solar cycles (SC 25 and 26) are predicted and they show a potential trend in reduced flux amplitude, which is suspected to be relevant to possible weak solar cycles.
