论文标题
分析美国重新开放政策和共同结果的设计空间
Analyzing the Design Space of Re-opening Policies and COVID-19 Outcomes in the US
论文作者
论文摘要
根据一段社会疏远的措施,美国最近的重新开放政策引入了每日Covid-19感染的显着增加,呼吁在许多州进行滚动或大量重新审议这些政策。这种情况暗示了为选择安全的替代方案而建模的困难,以建模部分疏远/重新开放政策对未来流行病的影响。更具体地说,需要了解操纵社会互动场所(例如学校,工作场所和零售机构)对病毒传播的可用性的影响。我们介绍了一个受社交网络研究启发的模型,该模型回答了上述问题。我们的模型将相互作用场所分为类别,我们称为混合域,使人们能够预测不同地理区域中不同地理区域的共同传播趋势,这是不同的假设对单个域的部分重新开放的假设。我们将模型应用于几个高度影响的状态(i)它可以准确地预测当前复兴的程度(从可用的策略描述),以及(ii)哪些替代方案在减轻第二波方面可能更有效。我们进一步将依靠部分场所关闭的政策与拥护广泛定期测试的政策(即代替社会疏远)进行了比较。我们的模型预测(强制性)测试的好处超过了部分场地关闭的好处,这表明也许应该将更多的努力针对这种缓解策略。
Recent re-opening policies in the US, following a period of social distancing measures, introduced a significant increase in daily COVID-19 infections, calling for a roll-back or substantial revisiting of these policies in many states. The situation is suggestive of difficulties modeling the impact of partial distancing/re-opening policies on future epidemic spread for purposes of choosing safe alternatives. More specifically, one needs to understand the impact of manipulating the availability of social interaction venues (e.g., schools, workplaces, and retail establishments) on virus spread. We introduce a model, inspired by social networks research, that answers the above question. Our model compartmentalizes interaction venues into categories we call mixing domains, enabling one to predict COVID-19 contagion trends in different geographic regions under different what if assumptions on partial re-opening of individual domains. We apply our model to several highly impacted states showing (i) how accurately it predicts the extent of current resurgence (from available policy descriptions), and (ii) what alternatives might be more effective at mitigating the second wave. We further compare policies that rely on partial venue closure to policies that espouse wide-spread periodic testing instead (i.e., in lieu of social distancing). Our models predict that the benefits of (mandatory) testing out-shadow the benefits of partial venue closure, suggesting that perhaps more efforts should be directed to such a mitigation strategy.