论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
On the dynamics emerging from pandemics and infodemics
论文作者
论文摘要
该立场论文讨论了与199个大流行有关的新兴行为，社会和经济动态，并特别强调了两个新兴问题：首先讨论了由可怕风险效应引起的大流行病的延迟影响（或第二次罢工），从而确定了可能影响这种影响的两个因素，即在访问效果方面，这些效果可能会影响这种效果的访问权利和行为的访问权限。其次，讨论了个人准备危险事件的问题。随着COVID-19大流行等事件也很难预测复杂的行为模式，需要考虑行为，社会和经济动态的复杂模型来评估决策的有效性和效率。
This position paper discusses emerging behavioral, social, and economic dynamics related to the COVID-19 pandemic and puts particular emphasis on two emerging issues: First, delayed effects (or second strikes) of pandemics caused by dread risk effects are discussed whereby two factors which might influence the existence of such effects are identified, namely the accessibility of (mis-)information and the effects of policy decisions on adaptive behavior. Second, the issue of individual preparedness to hazardous events is discussed. As events such as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds complex behavioral patterns which are hard to predict, sophisticated models which account for behavioral, social, and economic dynamics are required to assess the effectivity and efficiency of decision-making.
