论文标题
在热带地区实现大雨事件的强度模拟的电气路线
Electrical Route to Realising Intensity Simulation of Heavy Rain Events in Tropics
论文作者
论文摘要
在数值天气预测（NWP）模型的天气预测革命的背景下，大降雨事件和相关灾难的强度的定量预测仍然是一个挑战。在令人信服的证据表明对云/雨量微物理过程的令人信服的证据的鼓励下，我们提出了一个假设，即通过增强的撞击电场，通过增强的碰撞钙化来修改雨滴尺寸分布（RDSD）对较大的跌落大小，这可能是导致天气/气候模型中强度误差的因素之一。假设的鲁棒性通过一系列强烈电气（SE）降雨事件和弱电气化（我们）的事件的模拟证实，并具有对流渗透的天气预测模型，这些模型融合了模型物理中的电动修改的RDSD参数。我们的结果表明，在许多气候模型中，在天气预测模型中与极端降雨事件相关的危害预测的路线图和气候干燥偏见。
In the backdrop of a revolution in weather prediction by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, quantitative prediction of intensity of heavy rainfall events and associated disasters has remained a challenge. Encouraged by compelling evidence of electrical influences on cloud/rain microphysical processes, here we propose a hypothesis that modification of raindrop size distribution (RDSD) towards larger drop sizes through enhanced collision-coalescence facilitated by cloud electric fields could be one of the factors responsible for intensity errors in weather/climate models. The robustness of the hypothesis is confirmed through a series of simulations of strongly electrified (SE) rain events and weakly electrified (WE) events with a convection-permitting weather prediction model incorporating the electrically modified RDSD parameters in the model physics. Our results indicate a possible roadmap for improving hazard prediction associated with extreme rainfall events in weather prediction models and climatological dry bias of precipitation simulation in many climate models.
