论文标题
使用移动性数据的疟疾控制模型:塞内加尔的Kedougou案件的早期解释
A Malaria Control Model Using Mobility Data: An Early Explanation of Kedougou's Case in Senegal
论文作者
论文摘要
疟疾控制的研究涵盖了许多领域,例如医学,社会学,生物学,数学,物理,计算机科学等。进行数学领域的研究是为了预测疾病的发生并支持根除过程。基本上,建模方法主要基于确定性和微分方程,同时选择似乎很重要的临床和生物学特征。但是,如果个人特征在对疾病进行建模时很重要,则疟疾的总体估计不是根据每个人的健康状况进行的,而是在全球人群的非指定百分比中进行。本文的目的是提出一个依赖于个人状态的每日演变的模型,该模型取决于其流动性和所访问区域的特征。因此,由于移动网络的收集,一个人从一个区域转移到另一个区域的移动性数据是预测疾病结果的重要基础。我们实施解决方案,并通过经验实验证明其有效性。结果表明,该模型在提供对Kedougou地区疾病控制失败的可能见解方面有何希望。
Studies in malaria control cover many areas such as medicine, sociology, biology, mathematic, physic, computer science and so forth. Researches in the realm of mathematic are conducted to predict the occurrence of the disease and to support the eradication process. Basically, the modeling methodology is predominantly deterministic and differential equation based while selecting clinical and biological features that seem to be important. Yet, if the individual characteristics matter when modeling the disease, the overall estimation of the malaria is not done based on the health status of each individual but in a non-specified percentage of the global population. The goal of this paper is to propose a model that relies on a daily evolution of the individual's state, which depends on their mobility and the characteristics of the area they visit. Thus, the mobility data of a single person moving from one area to another, gathered thanks to mobile networks, is the essential building block to predict the outcome of the disease. We implement our solution and demonstrate its effectiveness through empirical experiments. The results show how promising the model is in providing possible insights into the failure of the disease control in the Kedougou region.