论文标题
基于代理的疟疾传播动力学建模
Agent-Based Modelling of Malaria Transmission Dynamics
论文作者
论文摘要
疟疾的最新统计数据表明,全球范围超过2亿例,估计死亡近50万。仅非洲就占案件的近90%。已经进行了几项研究以了解疾病传播动态。特别是,数学方法经常被用来建模和了解疾病动态和爆发模式。尽管数学方法为同质种群提供了良好的结果,但这些方法对研究异质种群中的疟疾动态施加了重大局限性,这是各种因素的结果,例如空间和时间波动,社交网络,人类运动模式等。本文提出了一种基于代理的建模方法,允许建模和分析异源种群的疟疾动力学。使用Tripura,Limpopo和Benin Cities的气候和人口统计数据来说明我们的方法。我们基于代理的仿真已针对所述城市收集的疟疾病例进行了验证。此外,已将所提出模型的效率与用作基准的数学模型进行了比较。统计检验证实了所提出的模型是强大的,并且有可能预测疟疾的高峰季节。这有可能使我们的方法成为一种有用的工具作为一种干预机制,这将对医院,医疗保健提供者,卫生组织产生影响。
Recent statistics of malaria shows that over 200 million cases and estimated deaths of nearly half a million occur globally. Africa alone accounts for almost 90% of the cases. Several studies have been conducted to understand the disease transmission dynamics. In particular, mathematical methods have been frequently used to model and understand the disease dynamics and outbreak patterns. Although, mathematical methods have provided good results for homogeneous populations, these methods impose significant limitations for studying malaria dynamics in heterogeneous populations, a result of various factors, e.g. spatial and temporal fluctuations, social networks, human movements pattern etc. This paper proposes an agent-based modelling approach that permits modelling and analysing malaria dynamics for heterogenous populations. Our approach is illustrated using the climate and demographic data for the Tripura, Limpopo and Benin cities. Our agent-based simulation has been validated against the reported cases of malaria collected in the cities mentioned. Furthermore, the efficiency of the proposed model has been compared with the mathematical model used as benchmark. A statistical test confirms the proposed model is robust and has potential for predicting the peak seasons of malaria. This potentially makes our methods a useful tool as an intervention mechanism, which will have impact on hospitals, healthcare providers, health organisations.