论文标题
新电车线的直接和溢出效果在外围街道的商业活力上。合成控制方法
Direct and spillover effects of a new tramway line on the commercial vitality of peripheral streets. A synthetic-control approach
论文作者
论文摘要
在城市中，建立公共交通基础设施（例如轻轨）可能会在非常详细的空间规模上引起变化，而不同的故事在同一城市社区中相互发展。我们研究了佛罗伦萨（意大利）建造的轻轨线对建造街道的零售密度的直接效果以及对经过治疗的街道附近其他街道的溢出效应。为此，我们研究了合成对照组（SCG）方法在面板比较案例研究中使用的使用，这些案例研究是可行的，在该案例研究中，处理过的单位和未经处理的单元之间的干扰是合理的，SCG方法论文献中仍然很少研究这个问题。我们将讨论以潜在的结果方法进行了构想。在部分干扰假设下，我们正式定义了相关的直接和溢出因果效应。在假设的情况下，我们还考虑了对经过治疗单位附近的另一街被分配给干预措施的假设情况下对经过处理的街道的``未实现''溢出效应。
In cities, the creation of public transport infrastructure such as light rails can cause changes on a very detailed spatial scale, with different stories unfolding next to each other within a same urban neighborhood. We study the direct effect of a light rail line built in Florence (Italy) on the retail density of the street where it was built and and its spillover effect on other streets in the treated street's neighborhood. To this aim, we investigate the use of the Synthetic Control Group (SCG) methods in panel comparative case studies where interference between the treated and the untreated units is plausible, an issue still little researched in the SCG methodological literature. We frame our discussion in the potential outcomes approach. Under a partial interference assumption, we formally define relevant direct and spillover causal effects. We also consider the ``unrealized'' spillover effect on the treated street in the hypothetical scenario that another street in the treated unit's neighborhood had been assigned to the intervention.
