论文标题
离散时间空间模型的强大估计
Robust Estimation for Discrete-Time State Space Models
论文作者
论文摘要
现在,状态空间模型(SSM)在许多领域中无处不在,并且随着观察到的未观察到的变量通常在非线性时尚中相互作用,越来越复杂。因此,验证模型假设的关键任务变得困难,特别是因为某些假设是关于未观察到的状态的,因此无法使用数据检查。由用于评估鱼类库存的复杂SSM的动机,我们引入了针对SSM的强大估计方法。我们证明了我们的估计器的Fisher一致性,并提出了基于自动分化和积分的拉普拉斯近似的实现,从而得出快速计算。仿真研究表明,我们的鲁棒过程在与模型假设偏离的情况下都表现良好。将其应用于北海Pollock的库存评估模型,强调了我们的程序能够通过非典型观察来识别几年的能力。
State space models (SSMs) are now ubiquitous in many fields and increasingly complicated with observed and unobserved variables often interacting in non-linear fashions. The crucial task of validating model assumptions thus becomes difficult, particularly since some assumptions are formulated about unobserved states and thus cannot be checked with data. Motivated by the complex SSMs used for the assessment of fish stocks, we introduce a robust estimation method for SSMs. We prove the Fisher consistency of our estimator and propose an implementation based on automatic differentiation and the Laplace approximation of integrals which yields fast computations. Simulation studies demonstrate that our robust procedure performs well both with and without deviations from model assumptions. Applying it to the stock assessment model for pollock in the North Sea highlights the ability of our procedure to identify years with atypical observations.