论文标题
公共安全措施对基于因果模型的大流行预测评估的Covid-19在美国的传播的影响
The Impact of Public Safety Measures on the Spread of COVID-19 in the United States Assessed By Causal Model-Based Projections of the Pandemic
论文作者
论文摘要
世界卫生组织于2020年3月11日宣布了冠状病毒，SARS-COV-2及其引起的疾病，Covid-19被宣布为大流行。从那以后，该疾病在世界各地蔓延，美国成为病例数量最多的国家。全球各国政府采取了不同程度的公共安全措施，包括改善卫生习惯的建议和广告活动，制定社会疏远要求并限制大型公共聚会，以及在家中待定的命令和锁定。在美国，尽管各州之间的反应差异很大，但我们清楚地看到，这些公共安全措施的影响很大，如果这些措施继续保持有效，或者扩展到全国范围内的封锁，则可以控制大流行，并且可能会因缓解后果而克服的疾病。在本文中，我们使用因果模型对新型冠状病毒的扩散进行建模。我们发现，通过持续的锁定措施，根据该模型，美国可以将感染总数限制在约135万，死亡总数为约7.2万。 60天的锁定可以挽救无数的生命。
The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, and the disease it causes, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020 by the World Health Organization. Since then, the disease has spread all over the world, with the United States becoming the country with the highest number of cases. Governments around the world have undertaken varying degrees of public safety measures, including recommendations and ad campaigns for improved hygiene practices, enacting social distancing requirements and limiting large public gatherings, and stay-at-home orders and lockdowns. In the United States, while the response has varied greatly from state to state, we clearly see that the effect of these public safety measures is significant and, if these measures continue to remain in effect, or are expanded to a nationwide lockdown, the pandemic can be controlled and the disease likely overcome with mitigated consequences. In this paper, we model the spread of the novel coronavirus using a causal model. We find that, with continued lockdown measures, the United States can, according to this model, limit the total number of infections to ~1.35 million and the total number of deaths to ~72 thousand. A 60 day lockdown can save countless lives.
