论文标题
冠状病毒covid-19在意大利传播：通过差异进化，通过动态社会疏远来优化流行病学模型
Coronavirus Covid-19 spreading in Italy: optimizing an epidemiological model with dynamic social distancing through Differential Evolution
论文作者
论文摘要
本文的目的在于应用最新的流行病学模型，即社会疏远（SEIR-SD），通过定义随着时间的推移的定义变化，以评估与冠状病毒covid-covid-in的传播相关的情况，以评估意大利和意大利最重要的区域以及其最重要的地区（即Lombardy和Campania）的情况。要盈利地使用此模型，必须找到最合适的参数值。 SEIR-SD模型参数的估计是通过使用微分进化（一种启发式优化技术）进行的。通过这种方式，我们能够评估上述三种场景中的每一个，从今天到病毒扩散结束，这一数字将处于最高峰以及感染病例将变得非常接近零的一天。
The aim of this paper consists in the application of a recent epidemiological model, namely SEIR with Social Distancing (SEIR--SD), extended here through the definition of a social distancing function varying over time, to assess the situation related to the spreading of the coronavirus Covid--19 in Italy and in two of its most important regions, i.e., Lombardy and Campania. To profitably use this model, the most suitable values of its parameters must be found. The estimation of the SEIR--SD model parameters takes place here through the use of Differential Evolution, a heuristic optimization technique. In this way, we are able to evaluate for each of the three above-mentioned scenarios the daily number of infectious cases from today until the end of virus spreading, the day(s) in which this number will be at its highest peak, and the day in which the infected cases will become very close to zero.
